I think it's all about how you interpret the data within the system that you're outlining. I understand the data points used to define the system and I can see how they all make sense. I won't get crazy with the analysis but I think, if you value the data used to define the system, you can get some useful information from it.
I think that prior to the season everyone would agree that Baltimore, San Francisco, and Detroit were all legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The data supports that stance and potentially validates early season "assumptions". The addition of Seattle to this group would make me think that Seattle is legit and their early season success is not due to randomness or a soft schedule but something that historically (according to the system) sets the Seahawks up for season long success. Unfortunately, the Seahawks have a very strong home filed and will be lined accurately, possibly even inflated, at home anytime they are decent. But, if you believe the system you might look to take the Seahawks as road dogs and see if their true team value, as suggested by the system, is better than most pundits think.
To me, the more interesting part of the brief synopsis posted here is this:
Qualified in 5 of 6 standards
NYJ
Minn
NO
KC
Buff
GB
TB
This might lead me to believe things that are simultaneously useful, able to be vetted, and good for wagering. The system suggests that the Jets might be undervalued in upcoming weeks because they, per the system, are set for a good season and that would only occur with a pretty immediate turnaround. It suggests that perhaps Minnesota's hot start to the season is not a fluke, is sustainable, and that fading them as the numbers catch up because "they will fall back to normal", might not be a good idea. Similarly, it suggests that both New Orleans and Tampa Bay might be able to sustain their early success and that we should not dismiss them as quality teams no matter the pre-season assumptions. KC, Buff, and GB would be about where you'd expect them to be.
We can follow the above and see what happens, perhaps it will lend some weight to the system data without having to wait 3 months to fide out if it's Super Bowl picks are correct. Just a thought.
